Published by admin on 15 Jul 2025
•Last Updated on 17 Jul 2025
Xpeng EV Line Up <Image Credit: Xpeng>
INTRODUCTION
Quick intro of Xpeng — It’s a Chinese Electric Vehicle, or EV automaker headed by CEO He Xiaopeng, with dual listings in the USA ($XPEV) and Hong Kong (HKG: 9868).
But I believe Xpeng is not just an automaker but something much more — An integrated hard tech and soft tech company with full-stack AI mobility solutions, and hugely underestimated by analysts and markets alike.
Here’s why Xpeng could see exponential growth in the coming years, possibly a ten-bagger and beyond in the next decade, with a good chance of hitting US$100 by end-2026 (or ~US$100 billion market cap, about fivefold from its current value), using a simple SWOT analysis.
STRENGTHS — COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES
First let me briefly elaborate on Xpeng's company strengths, or current competitive advantages.
1. Product & Design: Xpeng’s cars have always had aesthetics and originality in mind. With a focus on tech and space, Xpeng’s P7+ and sub-brand MONA M03 sedans’ stylish looks, best-in-class comfort, and spaciousness are now established strong sellers in China, while their refreshed G6, G9, and X9 cars (2025 models) are seeing steady sales, especially in overseas markets where it is being launched in 2H2025.
Unlike Xiaomi EVs, which focus on sporty looks, performance, and strong branding, Xpeng currently attracts buyers with its value for money, tech-rich, and family-centric cars (P7+, G6, new G7, and G9 somewhat). That may change with the arrival of their new P7 2025 model, a muscle car which is poised for a soft launch probably in August 2025.
2. Affordability: Xpeng previously competed in the cutthroat RMB 200,000–250,000 range — against BYD, Nio, Li Auto, Huawei AITO, Tesla, and Xiaomi.
But starting in mid 2024, Xpeng adjust its pricing strategy to mostly the RMB 100–200,000 range — pitting its cars mostly against BYD’s lower spec cars and Leapmotor. For example, Xpeng’s MONA M03 starts at RMB 119,800, P7+ starts at RMB 186,800, and new G6 2025 Facelift starts at RMB 176,800.
3. Cutting-edge Technology & Features: Outstanding Xpeng tech includes an in-house powertrain — consisting of battery, motor, and electrical architecture — integrated with the vehicle chassis and assisted driving capabilities, smart features, and luxurious materials.
For example, the P7+ and latest G7 boast assisted driving as standard, and uses Nappa leather on all seats with heating, ventilation, and massage functions.
Xpeng VLM & VLA-OL Models <Xpeng>
XPeng's new VLM (Vision Language Model) model is the vehicle's "AI Brain" that understands the world through visual and linguistic information, similar to human cognitive functions. This feature is now present in Xpeng's newest G7 SUV and allows for real-time, human-like decision-making in complex driving scenarios, including obstacle avoidance and emergency response.
XPeng's VLA-OL (Visual Language Action - Online Reinforcement Learning) model is the industry's first intelligent driving "AI Brain + Cerebellum" which enables Xpeng's latest cars like the G7 and upcoming Next P7 to process visual and language inputs and generate corresponding actions, particularly for autonomous driving. Its upper limit capability is 10x than the industry's MAX models, and will be released in September 2025, potentially being a game-changer event in the industry.
4. Strong Product Pipeline: In the fast-changing EV market in China, Xpeng is constantly innovating, with 30 products slated for launch over the next 3 years.
Most importantly, Xpeng is expected to launch twoExtended Range EVs (EREVs) in 4Q2025 — a large SUV (G9-esque) and MPV (X9-esque), which I discuss in-depth below.
The two upcoming EREVs are also expected to be very competitively priced, and will likely be sold overseas. Plus Xpeng's strong pipeline means their products will never grow stale and will likely see constant demand.
5. Strong Leadership Team: Credit must go to CEO Xiaopeng and Wang Fengying, a 30-year automotive veteran from Great Wall Motors who joined Xpeng as President in January 2023. At that low point, they carried out a company-wide organisational revamp, overhauling the management team, rooting out corruption, eradicating departmental inefficiencies, and shifting to a more user-centric focus.
Co-President Brian Gu makes up the formidable tripartite with his focus on global markets. Furthermore, CEO Xiaopeng remains humble and fully committed to building the company to reach greater heights.
Xpeng has also built a rich well of talent. Li Liyun (VP of Xpeng AD and successor of Wu Xinzhou) and Juanma Lopez (VP Design and former Ferrari, Lamborghini, Audi design lead) are just some of the talented management personnel which together are spearheading Xpeng’s drive to greater design, operational, and technological heights.
6. Stronger Supply Chain Management, Marketing & Branding: Gone are the days when Xpeng suffered from a myriad of supply chain, marketing, and pricing problems, such as a botched G9 SUV launch in 2022 with dozens of confusing configurations and G6 production ramp delays in end 2023.
Xpeng’s product, marketing, and supply chain teams are all working harmoniously to swiftly ramp up production and deliver blockbuster hits one after another. For example, they have one of the world’s biggest gigapresses, a enormous machine which rapidly creates the car skeleton, which helps lower costs and speed up vehicle production. There are also partnerships with Volkswagen for procurement, allowing them to negotiate better deals with suppliers.
Hitting profitability will be a pivotal turning point for the company and change in valuation metrics. I believe they will do so definitely by 3Q2025 (November 2025) results release, with a small chance of breakeven in 2Q2025 (August 2025) with better product mix, maintained cost control, and slightly higher sales in this period.
L-R: G7 SUV (Launched on 3 Jul 2025) & P7 Next Muscle Sedan (Expected Launch: Aug 2025) <Xpeng>
WEAKNESSES
Next are their known weaknesses.
1. Low Brand Strength & Perception: Xpeng’s brand strength is still relatively low compared to Tesla, BYD, Huawei, and Xiaomi. This puts off customers who don't dare to buy startup brands for fear of company bankruptcy and dubious quality
However, Xpeng is slowly but surely growing its reputation in China and overseas, with strong sales on both fronts. In addition, Xpeng is slowly penetrating small cities in China (tier 4 and 5 cities) with expanding stores, dealerships, and charging infrastructure.
Also, Xpeng is targeted to sell a million cars by end of 2025, and also be profitable by 4Q2025, which will gradually put these fears to rest.
2. Intense Industry Competition & Price Wars Creating Margin Erosion: This is an ever-present threat, especially from BYD as aggressive price cuts and discounts will lower Xpeng’s margins and profitability.
However, there are signs Xpeng is not participating in price wars anymore (including the last BYD-instigated price war on 24 May 2025), but relying more on their tech and service to build customer awareness and demand. Also, price competition might not necessarily be a weakness, more like a double edged sword or blessing in disguise even, since it forces constant innovation and high efficiency, for example Deepseek.
OPPORTUNITIES
Now here comes the exciting part — Opportunities. Unlike strengths and weaknesses, which are mostly basic knowledge about the company, here I discuss the massive potential of Xpeng’s exciting nascent businesses, which got me investing into them in the first place and which all have a potential of being moonshots by themselves.
1. New BEV (Fully Electric Battery EV)Launches & Global Expansion
Xpeng’s strong product pipeline through 2027 means they have many new exciting cars launches lined up in the second half of 2025.
Besides the EREVs and other tech advancements such as the Turing Chip, L3 Assisted Driving, and Iron Robot (explained in depth below), the new G7 SUV BEV has launched in July 2025, and the new P7 Sedan BEV is coming up soon.
Along with Xpeng’s global expansion, with high product satisfaction and surging deliveries around the world, and a targeted presence in 60 countries (300 overseas stores) by end of 2025, compared to 30 countries as of end 2024.
First 300 X9 MPV Export Deliveries on 22 Feb 2025 <Xpeng>
China and Europe are also still in negotiations to remove tariffs on China EV imports. If successful, this will greatly boost Xpeng’s profit margins for EU exports and overall profitability as Xpeng has targeted 50% of overall sales to be ex-China by 2027. However, Xpeng may open a factory in Europe (likely Austria or Germany) to service the European market if EU tariffs do not go away.
The end of the war in Ukraine and normalization of international relations will also unlock big markets in Eastern Europe for China EV makers such as BYD and Xpeng (whose models are more affordable). Russia’s population is 144 million as of 2024 and Ukraine’s population is 37 million as of 2023, and logistics-wise are quick and easy to ship over (probably doable by car carrier trailers too). Note: Eastern Europe has a population of 284 million, which represents a significant market opportunity.
MY TAKE: Target deliveries set by CEO Xiaopeng for 2025 is 380–400,000. However looking at their strong pipeline, especially if their L3 autonomous driving and EREVs take off in 2H2025 (see below), I am forecasting 450–500,000 deliveries this year, with a possibility of attaining 800,000+ EV deliveries for 2026 (See Summary at bottom).
2. Extended Range EVs (EREVs)
Xpeng Tech Day 2024 <Xpeng>
Xpeng’s EREVs will debut in 4Q2025 (Expected G9 EREV and X9 EREV) and will definitely provide a huge boost to Xpeng sales, as EREVs are proven strong sellers in China (and globally) due to constant range anxiety of customers (charging infrastructure in China's Tier 4,5,6,7 cities are often very poor) and the cheaper price compared to BEVs. In fact, recent sales figures show that the exact same model of an EREV can outsell its BEV equivalent by a ratio of 4:1, and even up to 10:1 (e.g. BYD Denza). This is also the reason why Li Auto and Huawei Seres AITO models sell so well in China.
In 2026, Xpeng is rumored to launch a MONA M03 EREV Sedan, a G6 EREV variant, and possibly a P7 EREV variant. Xpeng’s proprietary Kunpeng Super Electric System will bring an industry-leading EREV system, seamlessly combining a battery EV with a fuel tank for efficiency and 1,400 km of range (Battery is 430 km), removing any range anxiety for users.
MARKET SIZE: The current EREV market is enormous and will be very significant for many years to come, in China and around the world, especially developing countries. If EREVs can potentially outsell their BEV counterparts by a few multiples, there is a very strong opportunity for Xpeng here.
MY TAKE: Xpeng’s great tech offerings and value for money could give them an edge in this huge market. Depending on production ramp, Xpeng EREVs could contribute 10–15,000 monthly by end of this year. And VP Brian Gu has said that ramp up of production is not difficult if they have strong demand.
3. Flying Cars
Xpeng AeroHT Land Aircraft Carrier — Van & eVTOL Set <Xpeng AEROHT>
Xpeng has several eVTOL (Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing) flying cars under development or coming to market under its flying car subsidiary, Xpeng AeroHT.
Land Aircraft Carrier: This unique modular flying car (pictured above) consists of both a modular van and flying eVTOL module (stored inside). It has begun pre-sales (guide price lower than RMB 2,000,000) and is scheduled to start deliveries in early 2026, with an annual output of 10,000 units.
X2: This autonomous passenger eVTOL multicopter is meant for short sightseeing and travel purposes. It will be sold mostly in China, Australia and the Middle East, and won’t contribute meaningfully to overall business in the near future.
eVTOL Flying Car: A true flying car prototype with both driving and flying capability. However, it is still in early development stages, with rumours that the current main challenge is vibration damage to the tucked-in rotor blades when the car is in driving mode.
L-R: X2, Tilt Rotor, eVTOL Flying Car <Xpeng>
Overall, Xpeng Aeroht’s Land Aircraft Carrier is poised to shake up the low-altitude economy in China, the region, and gradually the world. This is due to Xpeng’s ability to mass-produce their flying cars at a lower cost, having attained such expertise with EV production and synergies with their EV car design and technology.
MY TAKE: Let's do a comparison: The US start-up Archer Aviation, the hottest flying stock at the moment, currently has a market cap of about US$6.8 billion with no revenue, indicative orders of US$6 billion, and is projected to be loss-making through FY2027 (and analysts are not optimistic about that too).
On the other hand, Xpeng’s Land Aircraft Carrier has 4,000+ firm orders as of April 2025, and at an estimated price of RMB 1,800,000 (US$250,000) translates to forward revenue of RMB 5.5 billion (US$750 million) for FY2026. I am very optimistic about Xpeng’s flying cars division, with many exciting opportunities too — such as partnering with Meituan or ecommerce companies to do flying car food or package deliveries.
My fair estimate of this business is US$1 billion at the moment (similar to its October 2021 pre-money valuation), subject to change as new information arises — such as financial performance, global demand, capacity expansion, new breakthrough flying car models, etc.
4. AI Car Chips (Turing AI Chip)
Turing Chip <Xpeng>
Nvidia’s Drive Orin-X: Single chip computing power of 254 TOPS
Nvidia's Drive AGX Thor-U: Single chip computing power of 2,000 TOPS (Cost: $5,000-6,000)
Xpeng’s Turing AI Chip: Single chip computing power of 750 TOPS
Angus McKenzie from Motortrend speculated that if Xpeng’s Turing Chip lives up to its full potential, it could be a Deepseek moment for the car industry. There is a lot of potential for a high-end chip specifically made for smart cars, and it may even be adopted by other brands, whether for their cars, robots, or robocars.
MY TAKE: Another wildcard with scaling power if future iterations of the Turing Chip become so strong, thus attracting other car/robot manufacturers to use it instead of Nvidia's Orin-X or other alternatives. Volkswagen, Xpeng's partner, has already expressed interest in using the Turing Chip for their jointly developed cars, for starters. As a gauge, Nvidia’s Orin-X earned US$1 billion in 2024 from China sales alone.
5. Autonomous/Assisted Driving
Xpeng Tech Day 2024 <Xpeng>
Next autonomous driving (AD), now known as assisted driving in China after a major Xiaomi car accident. This is the new main battleground for all EV makers, with BYD recently announcing their no-holds-barred, deep-dive in. For the uninitiated, AD has five levels:
Level 1: Driver Assistance
Level 2: Partial Driving Automation (Most EV makers are here; some tout themselves as L2.9 for marketing purposes)
Level 3: Conditional Driving Automation (Human still required)
Level 4: High Driving Automation (Human override optional)
Level 5: Full Driving Automation (Human not required; Robocar status)
Level 5 autonomous driving (L5 AD) refers to a completely self-driving car and is one of the holy grails of car makers. Whoever gets there first will see massive uptick in demand for their cars or L4 AD tech (for licensing out) in various countries. The applications are endless, from robotaxis, car rentals, and self-driving trucks.
Xpeng’s latest AD is called the AI Turing Intelligent Driving System, both using end-to-end Large Language Models (LLM) — basically start to finish AI processing — while its sensory hardware uses a combination of cameras, millimeter-wave radars, and ultrasonic radars (visradar). This is fairly unique to industry standard which uses LiDAR (laser sensors) or pure-camera vision-only solutions (Tesla).
Xpeng also announced in February 2025 it will launch customized smart driving insurance products with insurance companies, the second carmaker in the world to do so after Jiyue and a major step for AD as Xpeng is offering to “take responsibility for potential smart driving accidents with the help of insurance products to demonstrate its confidence in its abilities as well as to increase the trust of its users”.
MY TAKE: This market opportunity is huge. Xpeng’s smart driving, like AI in general, could develop much faster than expected, rapidly boosting their EV sales and giving them a major edge over competitors.
6. Humanoid Robots (Iron Robot)
Iron Robot <Xpeng>
Remember the AI boom taking many by surprise? Jeffery Emanuel, who wrote the famous “Short Case for Nvidia”, also predicted how the nascent humanoid robot industry can rise up rapidly. And Xpeng, with its bipedal, all-purpose Iron Robot, is not yet being considered by any statistics websites for their robot business, which could potentially be worth tens of billions of dollars, or much much more in the future.
Iron Robot <Xpeng>
Iron Robots have already been deployed in Xpeng’s factories and stores, and are expected to enter trial commercial use in the second half of 2025, meaning limited commercial use may come in 2026, including talking and moving like humans and other AI capabilities, which can only be greatly improved over time. The CEO just stated on 25 February 2025 that he is confident that Xpeng will deploy one of the earliest mass-produced L3 robot companies in China (yes, talk is cheap, but the CEO has consistently walked the talk since start of 2024).
Then we have Unitree, another blooming China-based robotics company, last valued at US$1.1 billion as of September 2024 (likely higher now). However, their current robots are more industry specific and not all-purpose (at the moment): The G1 is more like a commercial robot and their H1 seems more geared for industrial work.
MARKET SIZE: Statista forecasts the robot market is poised to grow from US$50.8B in 2025 to US$73.0B in 2029, at a CAGR of 9.5%, which I feel is hugely underestimated comparing Tesla's Optimus and Figure AI's valuations. Plus robot tech is moving very fast now and Xpeng is poised to mass produced Iron Robot in 2026.
MY TAKE: Xpeng's current market capitalization (and analyst reports) seem to value its robot business at $0 or close to $0. Although reasons could be that robots are frontier tech, monetization is still a year out, and everybody's in a "Show Me" mode, it is still quite bizarre when compared to Figure AI's current valuation of US$40 Billion and Tesla's low-end BofA valuation of US$14 Billion. Xpeng has a working 4th generation model and its 5th generation will be mass-produced next year in 2026, so it is puzzling that capital markets are severely downplaying Xpeng's robot business potential.
Also, the risk-reward upside of being one of the first humanoid robot commercial manufacturers in the world, if not the first, is extremely favorable. Iron Robot has a decent chance of standing out in this enormous market since many aspects of AI and AD (which Xpeng are strong in) are required for such robots, such as high-level communication, object identification (including dirty or damaged road signs), special situational awareness (safety hazards), and pathfinding (not hitting into people or crashing through glass walls). Cost considerations are another underestimated advantage (Xpeng EV mass manufacturing synergies & absence of LiDAR).
7. Robocars and Robotaxis
Robocar Concepts <朱宝龙-YL Weibo>
Robocars and robotaxis are the final L5 AD step in autonomous driving, and CEO Xiaopeng has envisioned many different scenarios for them: From transportation to food delivery to mobile convenience stores to F&B to ecommerce deliveries — the possibilities are endless.
In the far future, robocars may also be combined with eVTOLs for food delivery, transportation, or tourism.
MY TAKE: The robocar market probably will not have much impact on Xpeng until they reach L4/L5 AD, which should be earliest in 2027. But it may come sooner than we think, and valuations will come fast and furious if Xpeng can show it is on to something. Either way, a very exciting prospect to look forward to, for it would revolutionize our lives sooner or later.
Volkswagen, the owner of Lambo and Bentley brands, is paying substantial royalties to Xpeng of few hundred million RMB a year, which will only increase. They will also launch their JV car sometime in 2026, most likely under a royalty-per-car-sold agreement for Xpeng. With deepening cooperation, VW may decide to increase their stake in Xpeng (currently ~5%) to achieve stronger investment returns.
More institutional investors will take notice of Xpeng once it hits profitability or unveils a cutting-edge product. For example, the UAE Royal Family attended the Xpeng launch show in Dubai in October 2024 and were dazzled by the models and flying cars, placing an order for the first Land Aircraft Carrier exported to the Middle East. They putting a small investment in Xpeng is not farfetched, and same goes for Saudi Arabia and other big funds or megacap companies around the world.
Lastly, China’s stocks are currently seeing a resurgence, led by Deepseek, with a growing trend of Chinese and global hedge funds rotating into Chinese tech stocks.
THREATS (REAL OR IMAGINED)
1. Competition
There is always intense domestic price competition (or involution) in the EV sector, especially from BYD, Huawei, Tesla. Xiaomi's two EVs, the SU7 sedan and new YU7 SUV, are in very high demand, and they could in the far future move down to the RMB 100–200,000 price range to battle Xpeng. However, this may never materialize (definitely not before 2027) according to their projections. Also to note, Xiaomi CEO Lei Jun is a good friend (and investor) of Xpeng CEO Xiaopeng.
Some may be worried that copycats will mimic Xpeng’s popular car models, but it’s not so simple (as results have shown) as Xpeng has built up a decade’s worth of proprietary innovation and expertise in building cutting-edge EVs, as described above. And Xpeng will continue to push forward to keep on the leading edge of EV AI tech.
Overseas competition and price wars may also heat up with BYD and Tesla. However, I feel Xpeng is in the perfect sweet spot of value for money and product, and will continue to attract customers in the entry-level range, sitting between BYD and Tesla’s main brands.
Competition in autonomous driving is fierce, and there’s a chance another car company unlocks L3 and L4 before Xpeng (although having followed AD trends diligently, I personally don’t feel that way). But if that happens, that will remove Xpeng’s first-mover advantage. However, Xpeng will get there eventually too, and it has other plays like its flying car, AI chip, and robot business. Not to mention it can always catch up with the leader and outshine with its robotaxi/robocar offerings.
Ultimately, I feel Xpeng's ultimate destiny might lie in advanced AI tech, especially robots, chips, self-driving, and robocars. Mastering robots and AI will be the true mobility solution because after all, isn't a car just a giant robot on wheels?
Xpeng is tackling this by recruiting the best and brightest in their fields, and is heavily invested in their tech division, with almost 40% of Xpeng total employees working in R&D. If their technological lead widens over competitors, this will result in a positive cycle of attracting more top talent to create cutting-edge products faster, better, and cheaper.
3. Geopolitical Tensions
US and China tensions may never go away, but that shouldn’t stop investors from seeking the next big thing. Unless a full-blown war occurs (which seems very unlikely under the Trump administration), my take is it will be business as usual for Xpeng for the next four years.
On the corporate side, increasing friction between USA and China may spark another call for delisting of China ADRs from US stock exchanges. If that scenario plays out, that will create volatility in these companies’ stock prices, but I believe that Xpeng’s HK price will eventually recover and push higher as the company performs well (will have small forex risk though).
USA may also decide to tighten EV chip restrictions on China automakers, but that will not affect Xpeng as it transitions to its own Turing Chip in June 2025. In fact, it may even benefit Xpeng as its other competitors may struggle to find an alternative to Nvidia’s Orin-X chip (or even adopt Xpeng’s Turing chip in the future).
4. Global or Domestic Economic Softness
Any economic slowdown in China or the rest of the world will have a mixed effect on Xpeng. Yes, slower growth means less consumption and less sales. But Xpeng is positioned as an affordable, mass market, smart EV brand. A slowdown could spur more consumers to tighten their belt and go for bang-for-their-buck cars, and Xpeng fits the bill perfectly.
Also, Xpeng’s many moonshot businesses have much potential for revenue generation, and an economic blip is merely a hiccup in the long run (just look at the iPhone debut in 2007, just before the GFC).
5. Natural Disasters or Black Swan Events
Some may be worried that a natural disaster such as earthquakes or flooding may severely damage or destroy Xpeng’s manufacturing facilities and create a black swan event for the company.
Key Man Risk might play a role, as the company is heavily dependent on CEO Xiaopeng as the visionary and driving force of its business. If something unfortunate happens to him and he cannot carry out his CEO duties, it may seriously derail the company's prospects. However, this is a very obscure possibility, which can only be addressed when it occurs, similar to many companies, including Tesla CEO Elon Musk.
6. Fraud
China companies have a bad rep for some investors who have got burnt and worry Xpeng may be no different and is cooking its books and overstating car deliveries and revenue. However, weekly insurance registration data from China is from the national government records, and so there's no way to mess around with that. The same goes for vehicle registrations in most countries around the world which Xpeng sells in.
Therefore, all these government data shows that Xpeng is indeed selling the many cars as indicated, and their cars are growing in visibility in China and around the world.
UPCOMING 2025 EVENTS TO WATCH FOR
A) Every Tuesday — China Insurance Registration Numbers— Chinese car bloggers regularly release the previous week’s insurance registration numbers for all EV makers every Tuesday, which is close to weekly deliveries and indicates how the company is faring. This number (usually leaking out between 11–12:30 AM HK on Weibo) is taken very seriously by traders, and can move the stock a lot. To add, I believe Xpeng’s first two weeks’ numbers are often muted due to bulk manufacturing for exports.
B)Every Monday or Tuesday — CarFans Unofficial Sales Orders— CarFans China on X (Twitter) often posts data at the start of the week (which is usually relayed on Weibo by car bloggers) — the total sales orderbook for many car brands in the previous week — which includes Xpeng.
C) Every 1st of Month — Monthly Delivery Numbers — On the 1st of every month, every EV maker releases their delivery numbers for the previous month (including total exports and local deliveries for Xpeng). Also a big mover for the stock price.
1. New Product Launches/Updates — Look out for Xpeng’s new car or tech launches and facelifts. More breakthrough products will generate incredible sales, more brand power, and higher profits for the company.
2Q 2025 Results — Mid to Late August 2025 (Expected: Very close to Breakeven/Profitability, Very small chance of Breakeven)
3Q 2025 Results — Mid to Late November 2025 (Expected: Hit Profitability)
4Q/FY 2025 Results — Mid to Late March 2026 (Expected: Full Year Profitability)
Hitting profitability will trigger a positive feedback loop: The sentiment turns positive, brand image is elevated, generating higher sales as potential customers see it as a mainstay in the auto industry, and attracting more investors as it not only can stand on its own but prosper (a far cry from February 2024 when there were rumblings about its dismal sales and bankruptcy).
3. Early November — Xpeng Tech Day — Look forward to more exciting, breakthrough hardware and software products to be unveiled, especially progress on L3 AD and the Iron Robot.
SUMMARY
Xpeng P7+ & Iron Robot at Tech Day 2024 <Xpeng Weibo>
Do you want to own a company that can potentially change the world (or most of it)? Xpeng could turn out to be the Tesla of China, Figure AI of China, Archer Aviation of China, Nvidia of Cars: All rolled into one!
The risk reward looks tremendously positive. And the worst case I can see right now is the stock goes sideways due to inexplicable stagnation in its global BEV car business, AND all its other exciting prospects — EREVs,Flying Cars, AI Chips, Autonomous Driving, Robots, Robocars — fall flat.
BUT, in a good scenario (not the best case even), if one or two of Xpeng’s businesses blast into orbit? Let’s revisit each business and my estimated valuations (now and end-2026, with estimated annual sales):
1. EV Cars
Current: US$18 Billion (BEV, L2 AD, 380K annual global sales)
End 2026: US$50–60 Billion (BEV+EREV, L3 AD, 800K-1M annual global sales + huge/growing orderbook
Analysis: Forms Strong Core Foundation for Company, Profitable by end-2025, Benchmarked against BYD & Li Auto valuation
2. Flying Cars
Current: US$0-1 Billion (4K+ orderbook)
End 2026: US$3–15 Billion (10K sales + 10–30K orderbook, depends on type and new launches)
If you feel these numbers are ridiculous, bear in mind Tesla’s sky high valuation for its future autonomous driving, robot, and robocar plays, with a peak market cap of US$1.5 trillion in December 2024. At this time of publication, Xpeng is now valued at a mere 1–2% of Tesla.
Do note that Xpeng stock is notoriously volatile, with big intraday swings of 5–10% not uncommon. However, a major product breakthrough can trigger a sharp bull run for Xpeng, causing short-sellers to stay away, and perhaps even turning it into a meme stock.
And looking beyond the next two years, I can’t wait to see what other mobility solutions Xpeng or any other EV maker can come up with, including self-driving commercial trucks, e-bikes (like the awesome but scrapped Kawasaki J-Concept), and perhaps even super-drones and planes.
My ultimate dream is a solar-powered, self-driving eVTOL RV. Imagine being able to spend your whole life travelling, rent-free, almost completely self-sufficient (till they figure out unlimited fusion energy, cheap food science and/or super hydroponics?) — Hopefully the day will come sooner rather than later!
Your solar-powered, self-driving, eVTOL flying RV (Coming in 2032?) <Self-edited from Pixabay>
Disclaimers: All photos and images are labelled with owner’s attribution. I own Xpeng shares, but am not paid or sponsored to write this article.
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