For this update, I wanted to focus more on the stock price for investors and traders out there. So just to recap all that has gone on since November — We witnessed many ups and downs, which in turn has sent the stock price on a rollercoaster ride.
Xpeng’s SP has always been very volatile as I warned in my previous videos, and now investors/traders seem to be grappling with the valuation of its new businesses since AI Day — Lots of promising tech, BUT large scale monetization is a long ways out for Robots and Robocars — So investors/traders are playing some bizarre game of factoring in these moonshot businesses one day (e.g. SP +14%), and forgetting them the next day (e.g. SP -9%).
However, the 31% drop after 3Q earnings was surprising, even for Xpeng’s notorious stock volatility. This was one of the biggest falls in % terms over a week on record for Xpeng (US or HK).
Then the stock recovered slightly, only to go another 15% lower due to weak Nov deliveries, which was way below expectations.Some negative points are falling sales of the New P7, with only ~2,200 delivered in Nov, a big drop from 8,100 in Sep and 5,600 in Oct (Although CEO Xiaopeng did say this New P7 is a niche sports car not for everyone).
Two weeks ago on 19 December, the stock spiked in Hong Kong on high volume, the reason seems to be signs that Korean investors (via Korean Investment Corp.), either institutional and/or retail, are suddenly buying up Xpeng stock. This could be related to a potential Hyundai partnership or is completely unrelated, we don’t know. Other stock catalysts include Xpeng being granted an autonomous driving license in its HQ city of Guangzhou, plus an oversold rebound.
The stock also moved higher since Boxing Day on 26 December, probably part of a belated-Christmas Rally, as the main China and Hong Kong indices are rallying too. Plus there are on-the-ground observations that Xpeng’s X9 EREV is selling really well (still racking up 300 orders per day according to Weibo chatter).
Finally, just earlier today on 30 December US morning time, China announced a continuation of the nationwide car trade-in subsidy, which provided a boost to Chinese EV stocks.
2026 OUTLOOK
2026 Headwinds & Tailwinds
Now the important part, looking ahead to 2026.
During the 3Q2025 earnings report, Xpeng gave guidance of 125,000–130,000 car deliveries for 4Q, so they are expecting to deliver 46,259–51,259 cars in Dec to meet their guidance. With EU sales likely to hit a huge record and strong X9 EREV domestic take-up, my expectations are for 46,000–48,000 deliveries in Dec. Anything less will be a disappointment for markets, anything more a bonus. e.g. If deliveries fall within the above range, the stock can return to the $21-$23 range. If it hits 49,000 and above, the stock can spike to $24 and above.
Next, it’s also no use being a one-month-wonder if deliveries are gonna plunge as has happened before, such as in post-December 2024. So the next big question, are these car deliveries sustainable? I believe yes, Xpeng’s foray into EREVs (3 models expected to release in 1Q2026) plus its ramp-up of overseas sales, and its new BEV car launches (especially MONA SUV — can be a huge hit) should continue to grow its sales, even as China removes some EV tax subsidies starting in 2026. Other major factors to look out for are Xpeng’s breakthrough in L4 ADAS (self-driving) tech, targeted for end-Aug. That can also boost car sales further.
The ultimate question: What can move its stock price way higher and KEEP its gains? I believe for 1H 2026, Xpeng would continue to be valued almost entirely on their core EV business, so they must demonstrate growing car sales and profitability (very likely achieved in 4Q2025 results in March 2026) or the stock price will stagnate or slide down. These patterns were evident throughout the past few years, such as the stock spike and plunge when the Volkswagen partnership was announced in July 2023, Tech Day 2025 volatility, and early December 2025 with underwhelming EV sales the month prior.
2H 2026 is where the game changes — This is when Xpeng’s New Moonshot Businesses (NB) in ADAS, Robots, Robocars, and Flying Cars will come online, which should be a very exciting time for Xpeng (and hopefully its shareholders).
To end off, Xpeng’s SP is where it started around August, around $20. So can it still x5 over the course of 2026 to close at $100? I feel that’s still a good possibility if its new businesses take-off in a big way and markets revalue it as a tech company, besides other potential catalysts like an ARIDGE IPO, new mega partnerships and investments, new product unveils, to name a few examples.
I myself own Xpeng stock and some LEAPS options, and honestly, if it quadrupled to $80 by end 2026, I’d take it as a huge win too. Plus 2027 can only get better, barring any black swan event (Taiwan conflict, deep recession, major natural disaster).
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