[Older Video Link] This article is an in-depth analysis of Xpeng’s 5 industry-leading businesses. Compare that to their industry peers in the US or China, many of which have rich valuations, and majority of which are also around the same development stage, if not earlier, than Xpeng’s respective businesses (excluding robocars).
Deepseek moments may occur for any of them over the next year, and many of these segments, such as ARIDGE’s flying car, the IRON robot, and the Robocar division are valued at $0 or close to $0. So buying Xpeng stock now (November 2025) means getting their AI chip business, flying car business, robots business, and robocar business, ALL for free.
China pledged to “significantly” boost the share of consumption in its economy over the next five years while keeping tech and manufacturing as the top priorities.
Areas such as computing infrastructure, intelligent drivingand smart manufacturing are expected to be market drivers. Future industries — quantum tech, biomanufacturing, hydrogen, nuclear fusion, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence and 6G — are poised to reshape China’s hi-tech sector within a decade.
Artificial intelligence (AI) andcomputing power will be a major area of focus for China’s tech development over the next five years, as will semiconductors and high-end instruments, in keeping with “national strategic needs”.
The government will continue to address the problem of “involution” — the fierce intra-industry competition that has limited the potential of several sectors and led to damaging price wars.
[1] EV CARS
DESCRIPTION Strong core foundation of Xpeng, with profitability targeted by 4Q2025.
Their first Extended Range EV (EREV) debuted on 6 November with the X9 MPV, with a Kunpeng Super Extended Range system that provides an industry-leading large battery, super-fast charging, and large fuel tank. More EREVs will follow in 1Q2026.
At Xpeng AI Day on 5 November 2025, Xpeng announced the latest 2nd Gen Visual Language Action (VLA) Model, an advanced AI autonomous driving system which is far more advanced than traditional VLA models. This system will be rolled out in China in 1Q2026.
VALUATION
3Q2025 - $20 to $21 Billion (In Mass Production)
End-2026 - $33 to $82 Billion (Target 800K to 1M EV Sales)
FUTURE CATALYSTS (EV)
EREV Launches - Starting in November 2025
New BEV Launches (e.g. MONA SUV BEV) - Starting in 1H2026
Rapid Global Expansion - Targeted presence in 60 countries by end-2025
Full L3 Autonomous Driving Capabilities (China) - Targeted by 1Q2026
Volkswagen-Xpeng Jointly Developed Cars (China) - Starting in 2026
Full L4 Autonomous Driving Capabilities (China) - Unconfirmed, Targeted by 2026
Full L4 Autonomous Driving Capabilities (Europe) - Unconfirmed, Targeted by 4Q2026
FUTURE CATALYSTS (PARTNERSHIPS)
Volkswagen-Xpeng Jointly Developed Cars (China) - Starting in 2026
MARKET SIZE The global passenger car market is valued at around $2.6 Trillion in 2025, according to Statista and Research and Markets. It is forecast to grow to about $3.76 trillion by 2029 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.04%.
Market Research Future has valued the global automotive market at $4 Trillion in 2024, which is expected to hit $8.5 Trillion by 2035, while Xpeng CEO Xiaopeng has stated that the market size is around $10 Trillion.
[2] TURING AI CHIPS
DESCRIPTION Awaiting proof of concept, mass production ramping up, adoption by partners such as Volkswagen, possible adoption in other brands’ flying cars and robots.
VALUATION
3Q2025 - $0 (In Mass Production)
End-2026 - $0.5 to $6 Billion
FUTURE CATALYSTS
Volkswagen Adoption in Xpeng-VW Jointly Developed Cars (possibly ID.EVO SUV & ID Unyx 07 Sedan) - Starting in 2026
Volkswagen Adoption in Volkswagen China Cars
Volkswagen Adoption in All Volkswagen Cars Worldwide
Adoption by other Automakers, Robot, or Robocar Companies
Turing AI Chips valuation also highly dependent on success of other Xpeng businesses which all use Turing Chip
MARKET SIZE Nvidia's Drive Orin-X Business achieved $1 Billion in total sales to automakers in China alone in 2024.
The global automotive semiconductor market was valued by Statista at $69.5 Billion in 2024 and expected to reach $103.9 Billion in 2029.
[3] ARIDGE FLYING CARS
DESCRIPTION The debut flying car module, the Land Aircraft Carrier, is currently on sale in China (being exhibited in shopping malls and events throughout the country), and went on sale in the Middle East in mid-October 2025 (with 700 firm orders). ARIDGE is also opening low-altitude flight camps across China, where interested parties can learn basic eVTOL flight in 3 hours.
Future catalysts include mass production and deliveries in 2H2026, proof of concept, demand and scalability, and business segment profitability. New exciting models like the Tilt Rotor Flying Car A868, which was unveiled on AI Day, will also contribute strongly to this business.
VALUATION
3Q2025 - $0 to $0.5 Billion
End-2026 - $1.5 to $7 Billion (In Mass Production)
COMPARABLE PEERS
eHang (China) - $1.2 Billion (17 Oct 2025)
Archer Aviation (USA) - $7.2 Billion (17 Oct 2025)
Joby Aviation (USA) - $14.7 Billion (30 Oct 2025)
FUTURE CATALYSTS
ARIDGE possible spin-off IPO - Expected in 2026
Land Aircraft Carrier Mass Production & Deliveries (China) - Starting in 2H2026
Tilt Rotor Flying Car A868 Mass Production & Deliveries (China) - Expected in 2H2026/2027
Land Aircraft Carrier Mass Production & Deliveries (Worldwide) - Expected in 2027
Future Flying Cars & 2nd Gen Land Aircraft Carrier - 2028 & Beyond
MARKET SIZE Looking at ARIDGE's industry peers on 31 October 2025, Chinese firm eHang had a market capitalization of $1.3 Billion while US companies Archer Aviation and Joby Aviation were valued at $7.2 Billion and $15.3 Billion respectively.
The Civil Aviation Administration of China (CACC) values China's low-altitude flying economy at RMB 1.5 Trillion in 2025 ($2.05 Billion), and which is expected to grow to RMB 3.5 Trillion by 2035 ($4.8 Billion).
DESCRIPTION The 2nd Generation IRON Humanoid (Human-like Robot) was showcased on Xpeng AI Day 2025 and blew the audience away with its world-leading features, and was a huge eye-opener to many people around the world, which may be looked back as a significant moment (Deepseek-ish even?) for the global robot industry.
IRON Robots' mass production is targeted to begin in 2026, which if successful, will make Xpeng the first company in the world to achieve this feat of mass production of robots.
DESCRIPTION Xpeng robocars will use 3 existing Xpeng models (5, 6, 7-seater) equipped with L4 ADAS, with trial runs to start in Guangzhou and other major Chinese cities in 2026, and mass production also targeted in 2026.
And then there’s that other overlooked aspect which is robocars for consumers, which is also a possible multi-Trillion dollar market. And you guessed it, Xpeng’s robocar division is valued at $0 at this point.Just ask Bernstein analysts, who think that monetization is at 2027 or beyond, which I feel is way too pessimistic considering Xpeng’s internal timelines. Well only time will tell.
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